Assessment of the relative impacts of climate changes and anthropogenic forcing on Ouergha watershed hydrology (North-East of Morocco)

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of past and future climate change impact is essential for effective water resource management. This study aims to reveal temperature precipitation on hydrological streamflow Ouergha watershed inflow regime Al Wahda dam. Initially, historical trend was assessed using Mann Kendall tests Sen’s slope. Then, regional Climate Models (Cordex-Africa) were used project data under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 as realistic RCP8.5 pessimistic). After correcting biases in climatic variables three different methods, calibrated validated SWAT model forced simulations both scenarios. The shows a clear decreasing augmentation annual mean over decades. In addition, projected expected severe (decreasing) (Increasing). this alteration extremely affect rivers discharge reservoir inflows magnitude timing.